For this blog post, I figured that I show everybody in class of a football game under a microscope. Sure, we can watch football and enjoy our snacks and beer while we do it, but for there are a select few who work hard every week to provide the public a fresh look, a shot of what goes behind the scenes before the game starts. So for this week, I chose a game, playing in Baltimore, with the Ravens hosting the Oakland Raiders in silver and black. Put on your lab coats, step into my laboratory, and let’s dissect this game.
First, I jot down a few basic things, their records.
Oakland’s record: 3 wins, 5 losses.
Baltimore’s record: 6 wins 2 losses.
Then, I research the Oakland Raider’s Offensive statistics:
21.4 points per game (ranked 19/32)
358.5 yards per game (ranked 15th)
For the formula that I created, I need a few important numbers:
Score when the Raiders play Away games, and their Opponent’s Defensive Rank:
Week 2 OAK 13 MIA 35 (24TH)
4 OAK 6 DEN 37 (10TH)
6 OAK 20 ATL 23 (19TH) After Bye Week
8 OAK 26 KC 16 (17TH)
Score when the Raiders play Home games, with Opponent’s Defensive Ranks:
Week 1 SD 22 (9TH) OAK 14
3 PIT 31 (1ST) OAK 34
7 JAC 23 (27TH) OAK 26
9 TB 42 (29TH) OAK 32
Next I like to find out who’s injured and how some of the injuries in the recent past have affected the team’s losses and wins:
RECENT INJURIES AND IMPACT:
WEEK 8 @KC WIN
|D. McFadden SHOULDER||29||114||0||28|
|M. Goodson HIP||4||22||0||21|
|B. Myers KNEE||3||49||0||29|
|R. Streater KNEE||1||9||0||9|
|S. Janikowski LEFT GROIN||4/4||36||2/2||14|
|M. Burris ELBOW||7-0||0.0||0||0|
|M. Mitchell ANKLE||2-0||0.0||0||0|
|R. Seymour KNEE||2-0||1.0||0||0|
|M. Shaughnessy SHOULDER||2-0||0.0||0||0|
|D. Bryant ELBOW||1-0||0.0||0||0|
|WEEK 9 TB LOSS|
|D. McFadden SHOULDER||7||17||0||7|
|T. Jones KNEE||1||2||0||2|
|M. Goodson TOE||2||0||0||0|
|S. Janikowski LEFT GROIN||1/1||29||3/3||6|
|R. McClain TOE||5-1||0.0||0||0|
|D. Bryant ELBOW||1-1||0.0||0||0|
|D. Tollefson SHOULDER||1-0||0.0||0||0|
|M. Shaughnessy KNEE||0-1||0.0||0||0|
WEEK 10 @BAL (UPCOMING GAME)
|Miles Burris||LB||—||Full Participation in Practice||—|
|Marcel Reece||RB||—||Full Participation in Practice||—|
|Brandon Myers||TE||—||Limited Participation in Practice||—|
|Darren McFadden||RB||—||Did Not Participate In Practice||—|
|Keenan Clayton||LB||—||Full Participation in Practice||—|
|Dave Tollefson||DE||—||Full Participation in Practice||—|
|Shawntae Spencer||CB||—||Did Not Participate In Practice||—|
|Michael Mitchell||S||—||Full Participation in Practice||—|
|Coye Francies||CB||—||Full Participation in Practice||—|
|Sebastian Janikowski||K||—||Limited Participation in Practice||—|
|Richard Gordon||TE||—||Full Participation in Practice||—|
|Matt Shaughnessy||DE||—||Full Participation in Practice||—|
|Willie Smith||T||—||Full Participation in Practice||—|
|Desmond Bryant||DT||—||Full Participation in Practice||—|
|Richard Seymour||DT||—||Did Not Participate In Practice||—|
|Mike Goodson||RB||—||Did Not Participate In Practice||—|
|Matt Giordano||S||—||Limited Participation in Practice||—|
|Khalif Barnes||T||—||Limited Participation in Practice|
As you can see, the Raiders are plagued with injuries. Without strong personnel to show in week 9, they lost against a visiting Buccaneers team. The Raiders still don’t look too healthy when they fly east to play the Ravens. Now comes the fun part–crunching numbers.
Margins of Oakland Away Games: -22 (lost by 22 points), -31, -3, +10 (won by 10 points) = -46/4 games= -11.5 is the differential when Oakland plays away
There are 32 teams in the NFL. For the Raiders, playing a team such as the Ravens, will be similar to playing a few teams that they played against in the past. The Ravens have a similar style to the following that I will mention.
Playing against teams when their offense is ranked #8-24.
#23 MIA, -22 (lose by 22)
#14 PIT +3 (won by 3)
#8 ATL -3
#16 KC, +10
= -12 points / 4 games
= -3, meaning that they’ve lost by a close margin of 3 points against teams with similar style of play. I then will categorize the Ravens’ defense as a “loose defense” and compare how the Raiders fared against the bottom 16 teams in the NFL.
Against Loose Defenses (#16-32):
#24 MIA = -22 (lost by 22),
#19 ATL = -3
#27 JAC = +3 (won by 3)
#17 KC = +10
#29 TB = -10
= -22 – 3 + 3 + 10 – 10
= -4.4, the Raiders, on average, lose by 4.4 points against the bottom 16 teams.
Now, with all the numbers that I’ve calculated, I’ll combine them all to see the total production of the Raiders.
= -11.5 – 3 – 4.4 = -18.9 = meaning that the Raiders lose games by 18.9 points against teams similar to the Ravens.
Last but not least, we’re almost done here, is just an easy calculation of what the Raiders usually put up on the scoreboard against “Loose Defenses.” The reason for this is because I need to know how the Raiders average when they’re not playing in the comforts on their home field.
Offense Points RECORDED AWAY against Loose Defenses:
=19.333, shows that the Raiders score about 19.333 points when they’re not at home!
So with the two numbers that I’ve calculated, -18.9 (The number that signifies how the Raiders fare against Ravens-type teams) added to the average of how many points they usually put on the scoreboard. The final answer is .433 = -18.9+19.333 = .433 OAKLAND.
This .433 is a very odd number, as I’m letting football fans know that the Raiders will score .433 points against the Ravens, which could be rounded up to 0 points.
Now that we’re finished with the Raiders breakdown, I will break down the Ravens team to wrap things up.
24.9 ppg (11th)
346.0 ypg (19th)
CIN 13 BAL 44—31—20TH
NE 30 BAL 31—1—22TH
CLE 16 BAL 23—10—23RD
DAL 29 BAL 31—2—5TH
BAL 23 PHI 24— -1—15TH
BAL 9 KC 6—3—17TH
BAL 13 HOU 43– -30 –3RD
BAL 25 CLE 15 –10—23RD
INJURIES FOR WEEK 9
|D. Ellerbe HAND||4-5||1.0||0||0|
|E. Reed SHOULDER||4-1||0.0||1||0|
|T. Suggs ANKLE||2-1||0.0||0||0|
|B. Pollard CHEST||1-6||0.0||0||0|
|D. Tyson FOOT||0-2||0.0||0||0|
MARGIN AGAINST HORRIBLE DEFENSES:
+31, +1, +10, +3, +10
MARGIN AGAINST WEAK OFFENSES RANKED #8-24:
17TH CIN – 31, 10TH PHI -1
16TH KC 3, 12TH -30
=.75 Meaning that the Ravens usually win by 1 point against teams whose offenses rank #8-24.
POINTS RECORDED AT HOME AGAINST LOOSE DEFENSES:
44, 31, 23
Just as I did for the Raiders team, the two numbers I need to solve this final score of this game will be 1) The hypothetical number of points the Ravens put up against Raider-style teams, (11 + .75) and the actual amount of points that they put on the scoreboard when they play at home (32.666)
11 + .75 + 32.666
= 44.41 The Ravens can score 44.41 points, whereas the Raiders will only put up .433.
In conclusion, before you turn on the Oakland Baltimore game, you’ll know at least what to expect on the scoreboard with Daniel Park’s pregame analysis. My final prediction is that the Baltimore Ravens will blow out the visiting Oakland Raiders, and my math says that the differential will be 44 points.
So it’s not just cheesy fingertips from munching on Doritos and stretching my beer belly with the Yuenglings that I’m sipping on every week. There’s as lot more to football than you think!
The Final Score: Oakland 20, Baltimore 55. The Margin? 35. My margin of 44 is close enough. Took 2 hours to research all this but it definitely feels good.